hedifficulty was that the cycles were of widely different lengths—of approximately 20；000；40；000； and 100；000 years； but varying in each case by up to a few thousand years—whichmeant that determining their points of intersection over long spans of time involved a nearlyendless amount of devoted putation。 essentially milankovitch had to work out the angleand duration of ining solar radiation at every latitude on earth； in every season； for amillion years； adjusted for three ever…changing variables。
happily this was precisely the sort of repetitive toil that suited milankovitch’stemperament。 for the next twenty years； even while on vacation； he worked ceaselessly withpencil and slide rule puting the tables of his cycles—work that now could be pleted ina day or two with a puter。 the calculations all had to be made in his spare time； but in1914 milankovitch suddenly got a great deal of that when world war i broke out and he wasarrested owing to his position as a reservist in the serbian army。 he spent most of the next four years under loose house arrest in budapest； required only to report to the police once aweek。 the rest of his time was spent working in the library of the hungarian academy ofsciences。 he was possibly the happiest prisoner of war in history。
the eventual oute of his diligent scribblings was the 1930 book mathematicalclimatology and the astronomical theory of climatic changes。 milankovitch was right thatthere was a relationship between ice ages and planetary wobble； though like most people heassumed that it was a gradual increase in harsh winters that led to these long spells ofcoldness。 it was a russian…german meteorologist； wladimir k？ppen—father…in…law of ourtectonic friend alfred wegener—who saw that the process was more subtle； and rather moreunnerving； than that。
the cause of ice ages； k？ppen decided； is to be found in cool summers； not brutal winters。
if summers are too cool to melt all the snow that falls on a given area； more ining sunlightis bounced back by the reflective surface； exacerbating the cooling effect and encouraging yetmore snow to fall。 the consequence would tend to be self…perpetuating。 as snow accumulatedinto an ice sheet； the region would grow cooler； prompting more ice to accumulate。 as theglaciologist gwen schultz has noted： “it is not necessarily the amount of snow that causes icesheets but the fact that snow； however little； lasts。” it is thought that an ice age could startfrom a single unseasonal summer。 the leftover snow reflects heat and exacerbates the chillingeffect。 “the process is self…enlarging； unstoppable； and once the ice is really growing itmoves；” says mcphee。 you have advancing glaciers and an ice age。
in the 1950s； because of imperfect dating technology； scientists were unable to correlatemilankovitch’s carefully worked…out cycles with the supposed dates of ice ages as thenperceived； and so milankovitch and his calculations increasingly fell out of favor。 he died in1958； unable to prove that his cycles were correct。 by this time； write john and mary gribbin；“you would have been hard pressed to find a geologist or meteorologist who regarded themodel as being anything more than an historical curiosity。” not until the 1970s and therefinement of a potassium…argon method for dating ancient seafloor sediments were histheories finally vindicated。
the milankovitch cycles alone are not enough to explain cycles of ice ages。 many otherfactors are involved—not least the disposition of the continents； in particular the presence oflandmasses over the poles—but the specifics of these are imperfectly understood。 it has beensuggested； however； that if you hauled north america； eurasia； and greenland just threehundred miles north we would have permanent and inescapable ice ages。 we are very lucky； itappears； to get any good weather at all。 even less well understood are the cycles ofparative balminess within ice ages； known as interglacials。 it is mildly unnerving toreflect that the whole of meaningful human history—the development of farming； the creationof towns； the rise of mathematics and writing and science and all the rest—has taken placewithin an atypical patch of fair weather。 previous interglacials have lasted as little as eightthousand years。 our own has already passed its ten thousandth anniversary。
the fact is； we are still very much in an ice age； it’s just a somewhat shrunken one—thoughless shrunken than many people realize。 at the height of the last period of glaciation； aroundtwenty thousand years ago； about 30 percent of the earth’s land surface was under ice。 tenpercent still is—and a further 14 percent is in a state of permafrost。 three…quarters of all thefresh water on earth is locked up in ice even now； and we have ice caps at both poles—asituation that may be unique in earth’s history。 that there are snowy winters through much of the world and permanent glaciers even in temperate places such as new zealand may seemquite natural； but in fact it is a most unusual situation for the planet。
for most of its history until fairly recent times the general pattern for earth was to be hotwith no permanent ice anywhere。 the current ice age—ice epoch really—started about fortymillion years ago； and has ranged from murderously bad to not bad at all。 ice ages tend towipe out evidence of earlier ice ages； so the further back you go the more sketchy the picturegrows； but it appears that we have had at least seventeen severe glacial episodes in the last 2。5million years or so—the period that coincides with the rise of homo erectus in africafollowed by modern humans。 two monly cited culprits for the present epoch are the riseof the himalayas and the formation of the isthmus of panama； the first disrupting air flows；the second ocean currents。 india； once an island； has pushed two thousand kilometers into theasian landmass over the last forty…five million years； raising not only the himalayas； but alsothe vast tibetan plateau behind them。 the hypothesis is that the higher landscape was notonly cooler； but diverted winds in a way that made them flow north and toward northamerica； making it more susceptible to long…term chills。 then； beginning about five millionyears ago； panama rose from the sea； closing the gap between north and south america；disrupting the flows of warming currents between the pacific and atlantic； and changingpatterns of precipitation across at least half the world。 one consequence was a drying out ofafrica； which caused apes to climb down out of trees and go looking for a new way of livingon the emerging savannas。
at all events； with the oceans and continents arranged as they are now； it appears that icewill be a long…term part of our future。 according to john mcphee； about fifty more glacialepisodes can be expected； each lasting a hundred thousand years or so； before we can hope fora really long thaw。
before fifty million years ago； earth had no regular ice ages； but when we did have themthey tended to be colossal。 a massive freezing occurred about 2。2 billion years ago； followedby a billion years or so of warmth。 then there was another ice age even larger than the first—so large that some scientists are now referring to the age in which it occurred as thecryogenian； or super ice age。 the condition is more popularly known as snowball earth。
“snowball；” however； barely captures the murderousness of conditions。 the theory is thatbecause of a fall in solar radiation of about 6 percent and a dropoff in the production （orretention） of greenhouse gases； earth essentially lost its ability to hold on to its heat。 itbecame a kind of all…over antarctica。 temperatures plunged by as much as 80 degreesfahrenheit。 the entire surface of the planet may have frozen solid； with ocean ice up to half amile thick at higher latitudes and tens of yards thick even in the tropics。
there is a serious problem in all this in that the geological evidence indicates iceeverywhere； including around the equator； while the biological evidence suggests just asfirmly that there must have been open water somewhere。 for one thing； cyanobacteriasurvived the experience； and they photosynthesize。 for that they needed sunlight； but as youwill know if you have ever tried to peer through it； ice quickly bees opaque and after onlya few yards would pass on no light at all。 two possibilities have been suggested。 one is that alittle ocean water did remain exposed （perhaps because of some kind of localized warming ata hot spot）； the other is that maybe the ice formed in such a way that it remained translucent—a condition that does sometimes happen in nature。
if earth did freeze over； then there is the very difficult question of how it ever got warmagain。 an icy planet should reflect so much heat that it would stay frozen forever。 it appearsthat rescue may have e from our molten interior。 once again； we may be indebted totectonics for allowing us to be here。 the idea is that we were saved by volcanoes； whichpushed through the buried surface； pumping out lots of heat and gases that melted the snowsand re…formed the atmosphere。 interestingly； the end of this hyper…frigid episode is marked bythe cambrian outburst—the springtime event of life’s histo